#56 - Don't Bank Your Portfolio On Who's President

Author

Graham Schroeder
May 02, 2025

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Market Recap

  • U.S. Economy Contracts in Q1 2025 Amid Tariff-Induced Import Surge

    • GDP growth shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first contraction since early 2022, primarily due to a significant increase in imports.

    • Imports jumped significantly as companies accelerated purchases of foreign goods to get ahead of tariff hikes, contributing to a record trade deficit and pulling down overall GDP.

    • Consumer spending and business investment remained strong, but the trade imbalance and inventory drawdowns were enough to offset gains.

  • Boyardee Bags a Big Buyout

    • Conagra Brands $CAG ( ▼ 0.05% ) is selling its iconic Chef Boyardee canned pasta line to private equity firm Brynwood Partners and its portfolio company Hometown Food Co. for $600 million.

    • The deal includes the brand’s shelf-stable products and its Milton, Pennsylvania manufacturing facility, while Conagra retains rights to frozen meals under a licensing agreement.

    • Brynwood plans to expand Chef Boyardee into new categories, such as seasoning kits, and expects the acquisition to boost Hometown Foods’ annual revenue to $1.6 billion.

  • Unispice Unveils Evapotranspiration Packaging

    • Guatemala-based Unispice has introduced a new vapor-permeable packaging film for its born Farms Cleaned & Trimmed Green Beans, designed to eliminate in-bag moisture through evapotranspiration, thereby extending shelf life and preserving freshness across its global distribution network.

    • The innovative packaging material leverages evapotranspiration—a process combining evaporation and transpiration—to convert excess moisture into vapor, which is then expelled through the film, preventing internal condensation and product breakdown.

    • By integrating this moisture-regulating packaging, Unispice aims to enhance product integrity from farm to shelf, particularly in longer transit routes where delays and temperature fluctuations can compromise quality.

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Freedom Fund Portfolio

April started out cold with the public portfolio dropping over 11% in the first 8 days of the month, but finished with a strong recovery with a total month return of 4.59% (compared to the S&P 500’s -0.68% return). Year to date the Freedom Fund has flatlined only returning 0.69% (S&P 500 down 4.92% YTD). The portfolio in general stayed somewhat sturdy due to some of my REIT plays, Palantir $PLTR ( ▼ 1.9% ) rising 37% in the month, and the Evolv $EVLV ( ▲ 3.62% ) finally gaining traction up 38% the past month.

While some of my private accounts have been hit much harder I am really started to enjoy building this public account out with a blend of growth, value, and income equities. The main goal when I started this public brokerage was to build a diverse spread of equities that can hold on in tough markets and hopefully take advantage of some nice up-swings in the growth category. Currently sitting at 15 positions in the fund I do have a 20 holding limit I am setting for myself. As the next year progresses with tariffs and mergers & acquisitions I am continuing to look for undervalued plays that have a decent 3-5 year outlook.

  • April 2025 Recap

    • Portfolio Value: $28,990.41

    • April Dividends: $30.46 ($168.41 YTD)

    • Total Return Since Inception (w/ Dividends): 19.42%

  • Friday Freedom Fund Purchase:

Freedom Fund Background: I created the Freedom Fund as a public brokerage account back in October of 2022 to share that anyone with a social security # and a bank account can begin their investing journey by investing a couple hundred dollars a week. Every week and month I post on X (@GrahamInvesting) public updates about the purchases, exits, dividends, and growth of the fund if you want to follow in real time. The biggest obstacle people have to investing is just getting started so I decided to start a new account at $0 to start from nothing with you.

Presidents ≠ Portfolio Performance

First off this is not a political post… it is a reality reminder. So don’t even try to box me in. It’s tempting to believe the stock market rises or falls based on who’s sitting in the White House. But the truth is far less dramatic and far more complex. This past week President Trump even said “Biden’s stock market, not mine”. The reality is you can’t believe much of anything a sitting president says about market performance whether they're claiming credit or dodging blame.

Investopedia - Presidents and Their Impact on the Stock Market

The president is not your portfolio manager. Markets are driven by thousands of factors: earnings, inflation, interest rates, global supply chains, consumer behavior, tech cycles, and even weather events. Yes, policies can shift sentiment. But presidents don't control Federal Reserve policy, housing, oil prices, or Nvidia earnings.

Here’s a reality check:

  • Stocks soared under Clinton, a Democrat.

  • Stocks soared under Reagan, a Republican.

  • The market tanked under George W. Bush (R) and roared back under Obama (D).

  • Trump saw a bull market — until COVID.

  • Biden saw record highs… and a bear market in 2022.

See the pattern? Neither does Wall Street. The market doesn’t have a party. It has profits. So instead of crediting or blaming a single leader, investors are better off watching earnings calls, not press conferences. You could maybe make the argument that President Dwight D. Eisenhower who was the Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces in World War II had a huge impact on the markets. After all he was the leader at the helm when the United States became the global dominant power and the U.S. dollar became the global currency reserve.

Presidents may shape the economic mood, but the market moves on fundamentals and macro forces. If you're investing based on who’s in office, you're playing checkers in a chess game. the stock market is a scoreboard for capitalism, not politics. Capitalism is the game. Presidents are just players and sometimes spectators.

The market isn’t a reflection of Washington. It’s the result of millions of people chasing opportunity. Opportunity is all around you and you just have to look for it.

The purpose of this newsletter is to encourage you and our other 91 Gazette subscribers to start and stay consistent with your personal, professional, and financial journey.

Thanks for investing your time reading this.

Disclaimer: Graham’s Gazette provides information and resources related to investing, financial topics, and personal growth for educational and entertainment purposes only. The content presented is not intended to be construed as financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with qualified professionals before making any financial decisions. Graham’s Gazette and its creators do not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided nor do they guarantee any specific results from such use of information.